Risk Calculators

Mass-DAC provides access to several different individual risk assessment calculators developed using the Mass-DAC Cardiac Study registry data.  The mortality risk calculators predict the risk of mortality following a Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery (CABG) surgery or a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and were developed from the fiscal year report analyses.

The PCI target vessel revascularization risk-calculator developed by Dr. Robert Yeh using Mass-DAC registry data predicts the risk of target vessel revascularization in patients undergoing PCI within one year of their procedure.  The expected risk can be calculated based on the use of either drug-eluting or bare metal stents.

The PCI 30-day readmission risk calculator was developed using Mass-DAC registry data and is based on the American Heart Association’s Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality & Outcomes, July 2013 publication article, “A Prediction Model to Identify Patients at High Risk for 30-Day Readmission After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention”, Table 2, by Jason H. Wasfy, MD, et. al.

PCI 30-Day Readmission

PCI Target Vessel Revascularization

Mortality Risk Calculator

There are many “risk” factors known to contribute to heart disease. These risk factors include high cholesterol, smoking, high blood pressure, family history of heart disease, diabetes, age, and gender. Additionally, general health status prior to CABG surgery or having a PCI is an important risk factor. Some of these risk factors and additional factors have an impact on the risk of mortality following a surgery or an intervention. Sicker patients or patients with more health-related risks may be more likely to die following a CABG or a PCI than healthier patients.

Beginning with fiscal year 2007, Mass-DAC has created three risk calculators, annually.  Each risk calculator utilizes risk adjustment factors from the Massachusetts Adult Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery report and Adult Percutaneous Coronary Intervention report, available on the Reports-Cardiac Study-Annual Reports page.  Risk adjustment is a statistical process used to account for differences in patient sickness prior to their surgery or intervention. By selecting patient specific values for each risk factor, you can get an estimated risk of mortality percentage for that patient prior to the procedure. The computations are based on data from all Massachusetts hospitals that perform CABG surgeries or PCI procedures during the fiscal year, and is not specific to any one Massachusetts hospital.

These calculators are for informational purposes only and should only be used for adults aged 18 or older. If you have questions or concerns about the mortality risk results, please consult with your health care doctor or cardiac care specialist.

The risk calculators are available in an Excel workbook format (xls) and web-based form (still under development).  Each calculator utilizes data from the most recently published fiscal year report.  To find your predicted mortality risk score, choose the calculator based on the type of procedure and then enter your information for each risk factor. The final risk value will be between 0%, the lowest risk of  mortality, and 100%, the highest risk of mortality. The unadjusted Massachusetts state mortality rate is displayed below the final computed result for comparison purposes.

The PCI population is split between the shock or STEMI (SOS) patients, and no shock and no STEMI (Non-SOS) patients.  The Excel workbook contains one tab for each population cohort.